Tears of the Kingdom: The Art of Managing Expectation

 The Legend of Zelda is quite possibly the most varied series of any of Nintendo’s beloved first-party IPs, with a lifespan of over 35 years, it has seen many different iterations, from overhead design, to 3D, to whatever they tried to do on the DS (yes we’re talking about those painstakingly tedious stylus controls Phantom Hourglass and Spirit Tracks), to the new era we’re experiencing currently: open world Zelda.

The hype around this franchise is currently at an all-time high, thanks to Breath of the Wild, a game many respected games journalism outlets have named the Greatest Game of all Time, and responsible for bringing a set of fresh eyes to The Legend of Zelda.  Not since Ocarina of Time has a Zelda game been given this level of praise, and rightly so.  Ocarina of Time, in my eyes, is a masterpiece, a game I first played at 11 years old and struggled to finish, I came back to it at 17 and finally finished a game that cemented The Legend of Zelda as my favourite gaming franchise, and one I have cherished for many years.

Let’s give a bit of context to you, the reader, about me, the writer.  I was a very casual gamer up until the start of this pandemic that we’re not allowed to talk about, with very little interest on what happened at big gaming conferences, or the latest news on YouTube (in fact, I had no idea what E3 was until early 2019), and the only consoles I had ever owned until November 2018 was a Nintendo DSi (remember them?), a Nintendo Wii, and a Nintendo 3DS.  And so my experience of Zelda, and my understanding of the franchise came from playing 5 titles in the series, all of which followed the classic Zelda formula of tutorial, dungeons, get new items in said dungeons, beat boss, get an extra heart, and at the end, beat the big bad boss.  I loved it, and never really wanted that format to change.

So when I bought my Nintendo Switch in 2018, I had absolutely no idea what Breath of the Wild was.  All I knew was that it was a new Zelda game, and I absolutely had to play it.   Imagine my surprise, when I discovered that not only was the game an open-world game (a genre I had essentially zero experience of), but that the traditional dungeon structure of the franchise had been completely scrapped.  Initially, I must confess, that my reaction was one of disappointment, a reaction that would very quickly change after leaving the tutorial area of the Great Plateau, and being left to do what I wanted.  This was a complete breath of fresh air for me, and in the 150+ hours I spent in Hyrule, it’s safe to say I fell in love with Nintendo’s newest approach to the franchise.

Why do I tell you about my experience?  Well, it’s very simple really.  I was one of millions of players who played this game not really knowing what it was, and falling in love with it.  And the success of the game was something not even Nintendo was prepared for.  After being delayed for 2 years, their headline launch title with the Nintendo Switch quickly became one of the most popular games on the console, and as of 30th June 2022, the game has sold 27.14 million copies, beaten only by Mario Kart 8, Animal Crossing, and Super Smash Bros.  For a franchise like Zelda, which is considered the more niche of Nintendo’s first party IPs, this is an unparalleled figure.  And it’s extremely easy to compare with the other releases on the Switch.  Link’s Awakening has managed just over 6 million sales, and Skyward Sword HD reaching just under 4 million sales.  Hyrule Warriors, a hack and slash entry which plays out as a prequel to BOTW, has more sales than Skyward Sword HD currently, which shows that the interest for the world in which BOTW is set holds value.

While the other Zelda releases on the Switch have been remakes or remasters, it is still obvious the weight that BOTW holds, and this became clearer at E3 2019, when Nintendo announced that the sequel to BOTW was in development (a trailer that has over 14 million views on YouTube).  This was an unprecedented step from Nintendo - it is very rare that any Zelda title receives a direct sequel, and this was followed by a further unprecedented step.  A sequel that would be set in the exact same world as the first game, with some changes of course.  

Why did they go down this path?  Well it’s very simple really.  Very rarely does a Legend of Zelda title outperform both Pokemon and Mario, and with BOTW, Nintendo hit the jackpot.  And with the cult following that this entry in the franchise holds (there are still theories circling around on YouTube about elements of BOTW’s open world), Nintendo, and more specifically Eiji Aonuma, felt that the setting of BOTW had more to offer.  Aonuma is on record saying that the dev team had so many ideas coming out of BOTW, that it just wasn’t possible to fit into DLC, and so they set about developing the sequel.

And this is finally where I can spend time on talking about the subject at hand, the difficulties of managing expectations for a sequel of one of the greatest games of all time, which for many was genre defining.  How have Nintendo done this so far?  And how the success of BOTW could be a poisoned chalice for the recently titled sequel, Tears of the Kingdom.

Expectation management is a problem that we have seen in the gaming industry throughout the last number of years, one that often sees disgruntled gamers unhappy with the game publisher for not matching the lofty expectations that they themselves placed onto the “so-called” disappointing game in question.  Often times, this is more the fault of the player than the developer, but we have seen examples where consumers have been either a) lied to, or b) let down (examples include Cyberpunk 2077, and TLOU2).

But what steps can developers take to try and manage the expectations of the consumer, while also carrying out a successful marketing campaign?  Well I personally feel that Nintendo’s approach to Tears of the Kingdom is an example from which others can learn from.  Somehow, they’ve found a combination of teasing the die-hard fans, while also showing enough of the game to interest a casual fan.  The success of BOTW makes selling the sequel very easy.  If you loved BOTW in the same way so many did, you’re probably going to pick up the sequel at some stage.  This side of the marketing is no problem..

The problem comes with expectation management, especially with those who pre-order or pick up the game on launch day.  There will be expectations that Tears of the Kingdom will be as good as BOTW, an unreasonable expectation in my view.  Expecting a game to be as good as another heralded as the greatest game of all time by many, is one that becomes unmanageable.  This is a level of hype that in 99% of cases, will only be met with disappointment.

On a wider scale, Nintendo is not a company that is used to this level of hype or attention.  These expectations are usually reserved for PlayStation and Xbox, a delirium that’s been seen recently with the hype behind God of War Ragnarok on the PS side, matched by Starfield on the Xbox side.  In many ways, the reception Ragnarok receives is going to play out as the guinea pig for Tears of the Kingdom.  After an incredible first outing in 2018, Sony Santa Monica has been dealing with the online frenzy from over-eager fans, waiting to hear any news about their upcoming sequel.  The marketing strategy at first was strange, and it appeared, at least in my view, that this was a deliberate play to try and manage the expectations on the game.  And then, on the same day that BOTW 2 got a title and release date, a 3 minute trailer, showcasing gameplay and in-engine cutscene footage of Ragnarok was released, much to the delight of all.  The hype has become real, and let’s just keep an eye on how that all plays out.

Turning our attention back to Nintendo, it is clear to see that they understand just how huge a project Tears of the Kingdom is.  So far, they have released 3 trailers: the announcement trailer in 2019, a second trailer in 2021 which showed the first footage of gameplay, and finally September 2022’s trailer, which served to announce the title of the game as well as its release date.  In those three trailers, we have seen very little, with footage deliberately kept to a maximum of around 5 seconds before cutting, if not less, and the way in which the trailers are edited often leaves the viewer somewhat confused (indeed this is true with the initial announcement trailer).  And so, fans have been fed small nuggets about the game, allowing speculation to run riot among the Zelda community.  At this stage in the pre-release cycle, the overwhelming emotion is that of excitement, rather than expectation.

However, it is inevitable that this will change, especially as the game gets closer and closer to release, fans will start to build themselves up to a state of high expectation.  Nintendo can only control how they market the game, but with a beast like BOTW coming before this, there is very little they can do to stop the hype train from racing along the track, hurtling towards its destination on the 12th May 2023.  It’ll only be then that we will truly know if Nintendo did master the art of managing expectations, or if this was simply one step too far, as they become a victim of their own success.  Until then, all we can do is wait, and enjoy this time of not knowing, before the world will see just what Nintendo had hiding up their sleeve in The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom.